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Market to Trade Sideways Ahead of New Year Eve

By administrator | December 27, 2016 | Economy.

Coming to the end of 2016, we expect a calm end for the bond market with prices likely to trade sideways on steady transaction volume ahead of year-end public holidays. After seeing massive sell-off in November following unexpected results of the US election, the 10y yield had fell back to a low of 7.5% in 5 Dec 2016, before finally rising back to near 8% level driven by the speculation of more aggressive Fed rate hike next year. We view that the 10 year benchmark yield likely to move in tight range of 7.5% -7.9% over the next week, still below its November high of 8.3%.

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Domestic sentiment though remains positive yet Fitch has raised Indonesia’s credit outlook to positive from stable citing Government’s strong structural reform. However, it still fails to lift market sentiment as investors likely putting more concern toward FFR rate hike next year. We expect bond market to end this year on a calm note with bonds prices likely to be traded steady amidst the absence US economic data and Fed’s speeches until the end of the year.

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