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External Sentiment Shadowing Indonesia Bond Market

By administrator | October 31, 2016 | Economy.

In the upcoming two weeks, the market will focus on 3Q GDP data which is scheduled to be released at the second week of November. But before that, market this week will shift its attention to US 3Q GDP growth to released late Friday night (28/10). Strong US GDP growth will raise the probability of Fed rate hike by end of this year and further deter bond buyers to increase exposure in IndoGB. The market indeed expect the US economy to accelerate at 2.5% from 1.4% in the preceding quarter. The economy is widely expected to be supported by its consumer spending which made up more than two thirds of US economic activity.

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Meanwhile, domestic market sentiment remains lackluster after the comment of S&P’s director. Given such weak market sentiment both externally and internally, we expect the bond market likely to continue moving sideways in the upcoming week.  In line with current sentiment, we expect the demand at the last sukuk auction to be held in 2 Nov to grab moderate demand with total bids likely to range around IDR5-9trn. The sukuk to be offered are; PBS013, PBS014, PBS012 and SPN12170804. We view investors interest likely to concentrate on short term paper PBS013 which also has grabbed the largest bids among PBS series at the last sukuk auction on 18 Oct 2016.

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