Bank Mandiri: US Economic Data Weakening
Illustration: US Economic Data Weakening
The rupiah on next week trading looks like it will continue strengthen. As well as, analysts predict, Monday (7/4) will support by combination of external and internal sentiment, after last weekend’s rupiah closed higher. Furthermore, Bloomberg quotes on the spot market, Friday (5/4) recorded in rupiah strengthened 0.35% to IDR14,132/USD. Moreover, in a week the rupiah strengthened 0.77%.
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As well as, in line with Central Bank Indonesia rate (BI), the rupiah also strengthened 0.17% to IDR14,158/USD. Likewise, within a week the rupiah recorded strengthened 0.60%. Moreover, Money market Economist in Bank Mandiri (Persero), Tbk (BMRI IJ), Reny Eka Putri judge rupiah further strengthened because trade on expectations US economic data releases are expected to weaken.
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In fact, US March data on average Earnings per hour reported of 0.1%. Furthermore, this number is below expectations at 0.3% level or achievement of the previous month’s level of 0.4%. Finally, the achievement of such negative hand in hand with the hope that the protracted trade dispute between the US and China will soon be resolved. Last, the trade war between two of the world’s largest economy has been a major disruption to financial markets over the last year.
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The US President, Donald Trump on Thursday (4/4) says the two countries closer to a trade deal that could be announced within four weeks. Similarly, President Director of Garuda Berjangka, Ibrahim rate, when sentiment the US-China trade fade then risky assets such as the rupiah will be benefited in Indonesia’s business and economic fundamentals. In fact, Ibrahim said the resilience of the domestic economy would prop up the rupiah next week. Indonesia Manufacturing Index data is in the level of 51.2.
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“It’s above 50, meaning that it is improving a lot of companies are starting to increase his inventory, thereby increasing manufacturing products,” said Ibrahim on Friday (5/4). In addition, Indonesia inflation data as of March, it was 2.48% YoY or the slowest rate since November 2009. So the battle still shows the flow of capital in the Indonesia financial markets.
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On the bond market, the government bond yield benchmark series tenor 10-years down 1.8 Bps. In fact, the decline in yield is the price of bonds being the harbinger of rising due to the high demand. On the other hand, Reny see opportunities correction rupiah is still there. Considering other US economic data releases are no reported positive data as non-Farm Payrolls the US March period. Last, allowing the US dollar again strengthened.
Finally, both hope the rupiah in early trade Monday of next week (8/4) can be strengthened because of negative US data release has been pushed, the progress of the US-China trade war, and domestic fundamentals.
